AGP Executive Report

Budget and Banks: Rome plans to raise an extra €10.7 billion from banks and insurers over 2027–29, on top of €12 billion already expected from the sector. The revenue will help fund a €23.5 billion package of tax cuts and spending measures for 2027. Banking: The ECB cleared UniCredit to move above a 30% stake in Germany’s Commerzbank, a step that could bring Europe’s biggest banking tie-up closer. Trade and Growth: Italian exports to non-EU markets rose 16.1%, while the IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for Italy to 0.8% from 0.5%. Inflation, meanwhile, has reached a three-year high. Business Climate: Istat estimates Italy’s underground and illegal economy was worth €218.2 billion in 2024, underscoring the scale of activity outside official accounts.

Banking: UniCredit won ECB approval to raise its Commerzbank stake above 30%, clearing a key hurdle in its bid for control by year-end. Energy and EU Policy: Italy joined Greece and several central European countries in pushing to delay carbon charges, while EU leaders failed to agree on new measures to curb energy costs. Prices: Eurozone inflation hit 3.8% in September, with Italy’s rate rising to 4.2% from 3.2% in August. Public Finances: Italy plans to raise nearly €11 billion from the financial sector through 2029 to help fund its 2027 budget, which includes €23.5 billion in new measures. Trade and Growth: Exports to non-EU markets jumped 16.1%, but business lobby Confindustria warned that a slowdown lies ahead; the IMF recently raised its 2026 growth forecast to 0.8%. Energy Investment: Italy needs 50 GWh of new storage as solar capacity is projected to approach 82 GW by 2030. Informal Economy: Istat estimates Italy’s underground and illegal economy was worth €218.2 billion in 2024.

Banking: UniCredit has won ECB approval to take control of Germany’s Commerzbank and aims to complete the move by year-end, a major cross-border test for European banking. Budget: Italy’s 2027 plan includes €23.5 billion in new measures, with the government seeking almost €11 billion from the financial sector through 2029. Public debt reached €3.2008 trillion in August. Corporate Results: Brunello Cucinelli reported strong nine-month sales and raised its 2026 forecast. Investment: Panakès Partners launched an €8.5 million fund targeting medtech and biotech companies in Lombardy. Energy Rules: Brussels has proposed delaying methane-reporting requirements for fossil-fuel imports by a year; Italy had called for a longer postponement amid supply concerns.

Budget and Banks: Italy plans to raise €10.7 billion from the financial sector over 2027–29, on top of €12 billion already expected from banks and insurers through 2028. The draft budget also targets about €2 billion from gaming and €5 billion in ministry spending cuts. Growth and Energy: The IMF has lifted its 2026 growth forecast for Italy to 0.8%, but business groups warn of a slowdown ahead. Rome is pressing Brussels for more flexibility to cushion households and companies from soaring energy bills. Investment: Milan-based Panakès Partners secured €8.5 million from a Lombardy-backed fund for MedTech and biotech startups, adding to regional efforts to finance innovation.

Energy Costs: Giorgia Meloni called a US-Russia diesel deal “very risky” and urged a swift, coordinated EU response to high energy prices; Brussels has reached broad agreement on Italy’s energy-bill decree. Growth Outlook: The IMF raised its 2026 forecast for Italy to 0.8% from 0.5%, but unexpectedly weak industrial output in August and warnings of a slowdown temper the brighter outlook. EU Funding: The European Commission approved Italy’s €8 billion defence loan plan, advancing joint arms procurement. Aviation: Lufthansa won the bid for a €1.2 billion stake in TAP as it prepares to raise its stake in ITA Airways to 90%, deepening its presence in southern Europe. Business Finance: Dairy group Granarolo secured €450 million in sustainability-linked financing, while Italian preserves maker Citres was sold to private equity.

Food Industry Deal: CA Animation agreed to buy a 90% stake in Italian cured-meat maker Capitelli for €36 million, with the deal expected to close in the fourth quarter. Growth Outlook: Confindustria forecasts GDP growth of 1% in 2026, slowing to 0.6% in 2027; it warns high energy costs, inflation and interest rates could stall growth. The IMF’s latest 2026 estimate is 0.8%. Energy Costs: The IEA expects diesel supply tightness to persist into the second half of 2027. Meloni called the US-Russia diesel deal risky, warning it could weaken sanctions and legitimize Moscow. EU Funding: Brussels approved Italy’s €8 billion defence loan plan, part of the bloc’s joint arms procurement push. Business Expansion: RingCentral will enter Italy’s wholesale market through Allnet.Italia, tapping a network of more than 5,000 channel partners.

Growth Outlook: The IMF raised Italy’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.8% from 0.5%, but the economy remains weak: industrial output fell unexpectedly in August. Energy: Giorgia Meloni urged the EU to respond to high energy prices, while grid operators say Italy’s solar capacity could reach 137 GW by 2040. Battery storage is slowing overall, though utility-scale capacity grew 197%. Trade: Italy is eyeing expanded Mercosur ties as exports under the EU deal rose 21%. Business: Eni agreed to sell 10% stakes in several Indonesian oil and gas assets to Pertamina and Medco, subject to regulatory approval. EU Rules: Italy, Germany and Belgium are pressing Brussels for an “emergency brake” on new legislation, arguing for more room to protect competitiveness.

Growth Outlook: The IMF raised Italy’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.8% from 0.5%, but expects expansion to slow to 0.6% in 2027. Energy Costs: Giorgia Meloni urged the EU to find a lasting response to high energy prices, as Brussels has rejected calls from Italy and Greece for more budget flexibility. Clean Energy: Italy’s solar capacity could reach 137 GW by 2040, but battery storage growth is slowing overall even as utility-scale capacity rises sharply; the country still has no operating floating wind farms. Trade and Industry: Italian exports to Mercosur rose 21% under the EU trade deal, while industrial production fell unexpectedly in August.

EU Competitiveness: Italy, Germany and Belgium are seeking an emergency brake on EU rules they say burden businesses and weaken investment; Brussels has separately rejected Italy’s call for more budget flexibility on energy costs. Banking: MPS says Intesa Sanpaolo’s revised €34 billion takeover offer leaves shareholders facing uncertainty. A proposed alternative defence plan appears unlikely to win enough support, while Unipol has received clearance to take control of BPER Banca. Economic Outlook: Meloni says Italy has weathered shocks, but growth remains weak; the Bank of Italy also flags risks from crises and financial markets. Industry: Italy’s industrial output fell unexpectedly in August, adding to concerns about the country’s subdued growth. Italian Tech: Bending Spoons, which agreed to buy Airtable for $1.28 billion, plans to cut a large part of the software company’s workforce as it reorganizes around smaller teams and AI.

Growth Outlook: Giorgia Meloni acknowledged that Italy’s growth is weak but said the economy has proved resilient; she suggested GDP could rise by as much as 1% this year, above the government’s 0.6% forecast. Banking: Unipol won ECB and Bank of Italy approval to raise its stake in BPER beyond 20%, giving it de facto control. Telecoms: Inwit’s main shareholders are discussing a possible buyout with banks, with Mubadala expected to join the deal. Consumer Deals: H.I.G. Capital completed the sale of beauty retailer Pinalli to Milan-based Borletti Group; Pinalli reported €197 million in 2025 revenue. Industry: Italy’s industrial output fell unexpectedly in August, while former Ilva steelworkers plan to strike as a shutdown threatens thousands of jobs. Brussels has also rejected Italy’s request for more flexibility under EU fiscal rules. Data Centres: Core Stack and Green Arrow plan to invest more than €1 billion in an Italian data-centre network.

Wine Industry: Thieves stole 30,000 bottles worth about €5 million from Marchesi Antinori’s Tuscan warehouse, in a major hit to Italy’s premium wine trade. Iveco Deal: Tata Motors raised its takeover offer for Iveco to €14.40 per share, advancing a deal that still needs approvals. Data Centres: Core Stack and Green Arrow plan to invest more than €1 billion in Italian data centres, while Italy’s sector is forecast to attract $41.5 billion by 2036. Clean Energy: Developer Galileo secured permits for 250 MW of battery storage projects, and Sonnedix added 54 MW of solar assets in Italy. EU Budget Debate: Brussels and Eurogroup partners rebuffed Rome’s push for more flexibility on fiscal rules, including accounting for inflation in budget targets.

Telecoms: INWIT’s leading shareholders are arranging financing for a possible take-private of Italy’s largest mobile-tower operator. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala may join the bid, as INWIT faces contract disputes with major customers TIM and Fastweb. Wine: Thieves stole 30,000 bottles worth about €5 million from Tuscan producer Marchesi Antinori after disabling alarms and cameras, dealing the winery both a major financial and emotional blow. Industrial Deals: Tata Motors raised its offer for Iveco Group to €14.40 per share, while China’s Midea completed its controlling acquisition of Italian medical-imaging firm Esaote. Investment: Core Stack and Green Arrow plan to invest more than €1 billion in Italian data centres. Energy storage is also advancing, with Galileo securing approval for 250 MW of battery projects and BW ESS beginning construction of an 828 MWh site.

Industrial Outlook: Italy’s industrial production fell unexpectedly in August, while the expiry of a diesel-tax cut is adding to cost concerns for transport businesses. Steel Jobs: Former Ilva workers plan to strike as a threatened shutdown puts thousands of jobs at risk. Corporate Deals: Tata Motors raised its Iveco takeover offer to €14.40 a share, and China’s Midea completed its acquisition of a controlling stake in Italian medical-imaging group Esaote. Wine Heist: Thieves stole 30,000 bottles worth about €5 million from Tuscan winery Marchesi Antinori, striking at a major export shipment. Business Expansion: Italy’s Mollo Group strengthened its rental business in Emilia-Romagna by acquiring Ruini Marco Group. Trade Ties: Italy and Morocco signed an agreement to boost economic exchanges.

EU Budget: Ireland’s presidency proposed an 8% cut to the bloc’s 2028–34 budget, a plan likely to face resistance from Italy and other countries opposing cuts to farm and regional funding. Healthcare Deal: China’s Midea has acquired a controlling stake in Genoa-based medical imaging firm Esaote, which will retain its headquarters and independent operations; Esaote reported €267 million in 2025 revenue. Iveco Bid: TML raised its offer for Iveco Group to €14.40 per share, which the Italian truckmaker welcomed. Industrial Output: Italy’s industrial production fell unexpectedly in August, adding to concerns about the manufacturing outlook. Investment: Core Stack plans a €1 billion data-centre network in Italy, while the European Commission has cleared Italy to use an EU fiscal escape clause for defence and energy spending.

Industrial Output: Italy’s industrial production fell unexpectedly in August, renewing concerns about the strength of the recovery. Public Finances: Brussels rejected Rome’s push to factor inflation into EU budget rules, though Italy has approval to use a separate escape clause for defence and energy spending. Corporate Deals: Tata Motors raised its Iveco takeover offer to €14.40 per share, an increase welcomed by the truckmaker. Investment: Core Stack and Green Arrow plan to invest more than €1 billion in Italian data centres. Advanced Industry: Edgewing opened its first GCAP engineering site in Turin, strengthening Italy’s role in the UK-Japan-Italy fighter programme.

Consumer Protection: Italy is leading an EU-backed probe into Microsoft-owned Activision Blizzard and other gaming businesses over whether virtual-currency bundles obscure real spending, particularly for younger players. Industry and Jobs: Industrial production fell 1.3% in August from July, an unexpected setback, while former Ilva steelworkers plan to strike as the Taranto shutdown puts more than 2,000 jobs at risk. Fiscal Policy: Brussels has rebuffed Rome’s push for more budget flexibility to account for inflation, complicating efforts to support households and industry amid high energy costs. Investment: Core Stack and Green Arrow plan to invest more than €1 billion in Italian data centres, while renewable developer Galileo secured approval for 250 megawatts of battery storage projects.